Friday, May 23, 2014

The Saffron hangover

23rd May, 2014
New Delhi

India just witnessed apparently the most historic elections since Independence where in the marquee Indian National Congress party suffered a humiliating defeat and the Bhartiya Janta Party single- handedly swept the majority. Another mind boggling fact about these elections is that there is no single opposition party. The margin of victory for the right winged party was so huge that a lot of incumbent cabinet ministers and political stalwarts suffered casualties. Narendra Modi, the BJP prime ministerial candidate is expected to be sworn in as India's 16th Prime Minister.

What worked for the BJP

Development card-The image of Narendra modi as an efficient leader in Gujarat and the anti-incumbency against the deleterious Congressmen were the factors that turned the table in these elections. Right from the outset, it was clear that the BJP will be projecting Modi as the ombudsman, a panacea, a malady for all the national issues and setbacks. The dripping GDP and the ascending corruption at all levels resulted in a defining paradigm shift of the middle class towards NaMo who steered Gujarat into a phase of consistent economic development by roping in industries and generating employment.The Modi propaganda was so intense and sometimes felt far-fetched, when even during the assembly elections in various states, Narendra Modi was used as a catalyst to stir the tide in favor of the BJP's chief ministerial candidate. Lakhs of crores were shelled out to give a remarkable PR to the Gujarat CM who tried for an image makeover and silent the minority groups who blamed him for the Godhra carnage. Modi truly became a one-man-army during the 10 months leading to the General elections and was given a Godlike stature in some states.Many industry moghuls also funded the modi cause and development model.




The pre-poll alliance with regional parties like Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and LJP in Bihar further allowed BJP to the cover the ground it had lost in 2009. Uttar Pradesh was the target for them in these polls and Modi was allocated to the Varanasi constituency to capture the imagination of the million Purvanchal people. The Hindutva groups all over India were instigated by the RSS to provide support to Modi. Such electoral polarization was never seen before in the Indian history



What did not work for the Congress/UPA

First and foremost, electing Rahul Gandhi as the leader of the election campaign backfired tremendously. Though, no official statement was made by the INC, it was apparent that RaGa will succeed Manmohan Singh if the Congress is able to pull off a victory. Rahul Gandhi failed on several counts. Firstly, he is not considered to be a visionary and a dynamic leader by majority of Indians and is considered an accidental politician. Inspite of several attempts to connect with the masses, he failed to. Another major reason was the involvement of the Congress in a list of scams, making it a tainted party ready to be discarded by Indians. The dynasty rule had betrayed the citizens and they wanted to see a change at the top.


Congress, however, tried to polarize people in the name of religion and called BJP anti-muslim party with a communal psyche. Several allegations were made on veteran BJP and NDA leaders and they rubbished of the "Modi" factor nonchalantly, either failing to tap the impulse of the young voter or faking it. In a nutshell, Congress tried to maintain its cool despite drubbing in the state elections of Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.


The AAP factor

The debutantes in the Lok Sabha poll, Aam Aadmi part, lead by a volatile Arvind Kejriwal had formed a shaky government in the capital. Though, politically novice, the party had enough firepower to upstage big names based on their high ideals and promises to give a new brand of polity to the country and involving more people.




The verdict

The elections saw a huge turnout with numbers touching record highs in a few states. The hallmark of democracy was exercised and how! The landslide victory for the Bhartiya Janta Party that folllowed flummoxed everyone as few had expected a single party majority. It was clear that mere beseeching people to vote on false pretense won't help anymore as the voter became more erudite. BJP drew an unprecedented report card, winning 282 while NDA sweeping 336. It won lion's share in UP; which was considered its bone of contention, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan.

Underestimating the anti-incumbency factor was the cardinal sin committed by Congress. In addition to that, they wallowed by besmirching Narendra Modi instead of overcoming their fallacies at regional level.

AAP's media management was also criticized heavily as the party could manage just 4 seats; all in Punjab and a vote share of meager 2.2 %. AAP drew a blank sheet in Delhi, place where it was the ruling party a couple of months back. The impulsive resignation of Arvind Kejriwal and the lack of organisation in the cabal were the reasons of it's failure at the national level. Though, with more revised planning and well laid out executives, it can still be a force to reckon with a regional level.


Challenges for the government

The government is democratically elected totalitarian form of government with no representation of Muslims in the NDA cauldron. The Hindutav vibe oozes out of the BJP cells but this scenario might be a cause of several apprehensions that might arise intrinsically in the country by minority groups and extrinsically by our neighboring counties. Apart from this, the image of Modi on the global stage is that of an arrogant, aggressive politician who has an astute intellect, ready to pounce at the drop of a hat.The positives are his clear minded approach and his redundant promises of replicating the immensely successful Gujarat development model at the national level. If he translates his words into actions, he may well be able to eradicate and apprehensions and lift the India from the abyss it fell in during the Congress reign.